Market Stage
Live read of the sector-rotation cycle — where we are, whether the sectors are confirming it, and what the macro signals say about the next turn. Learn the framework →
Next-transition watch
No clear stage signature right now — waiting for the cycle to resolve.
Recommended exposure
Sector rotation × composite exposure · backtest →Cycle position
The market curve (solid) leads the economy (dotted). Labels follow the Way2Wealth / Stovall cycle-position framework — education only, not a live signal.
Concept inspired by Sam Stovall / Way2Wealth TIME TO KNOWLEDGE cycle-position education (market leads economy); rebuilt for MRT (not a copy of any publisher chart).
Economic cycle stages & sector pyramid
This theoretical model is based on Sam Stovall's S&P's Guide to Sector Rotation and states that different sectors are stronger at different points in the economic cycle. The Market Cycle precedes the Economic Cycle because investors try to anticipate economic effects.
Stage in economic cycle
| Stage in economic cycle | Full Recession | Early Recovery | Full Recovery | Early Recession |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Expectations | Reviving | Rising | Declining | Falling Sharply |
| Industrial Production | Bottoming Out | Rising | Flat | Falling |
| Interest Rates | Falling | Bottoming Out | Rising Rapidly | Peaking |
| Yield Curve | Normal | Normal (Steep) | Flattening Out | Flat/Inverted |
* Sam Stovall's Sector Investing, 1996
Concept inspired by Sam Stovall / Way2Wealth sector-rotation education frameworks (economic-cycle stage table + typical business-cycle sector pyramid); rebuilt for MRT (not a copy of any publisher chart).
The chart below shows a typical business cycle and the points at which various sectors tend to outperform the broader market.
Typical business cycle and sector performance
Concept inspired by Sam Stovall / Way2Wealth sector-rotation education frameworks (economic-cycle stage table + typical business-cycle sector pyramid); rebuilt for MRT (not a copy of any publisher chart).
- According to the theory, before an economic data can actually reflect a recovery, the cyclical (auto, housing) will start forming a base and start a phase of accumulation and favorable price action.
Is the market confirming Unknown?
A leader confirms when its money-flow intensity is positive and its 4-window phase is bullish (accumulating or trending up).
Stage movers
Live sector leadership
All 11 SPDR sectors by money-flow intensity. Badges mark the textbook leaders (↑) and laggards (↓) for the current stage — green leaders at the top / red laggards at the bottom means the cycle is behaving.
Macro transition signals
The macro tells that precede each cycle hand-off, each read against the current stage. “Confirming” means the signal fits this stage; “watch” means it is leaning toward the next transition.
Next-transition watch
No clear stage signature right now — waiting for the cycle to resolve.